Much ink has been shed over the blowing up of the Nordstream pipelines with fingers being pointed at Americans, Russians, and Ukrainians as the saboteurs. At this writing, a Ukrainian supposedly involved has been arrested. How the media will spin this I don’t know. There exist many politically motivated who would like to decide who did it, regardless of who actually did it.
The press coverage with the predictability of corruption and adultery will be slanted to the verge of verticality. I have seen stories suggesting that a boat of some sort passed over the gasoducts, a diver jumped overboard, and voila, nothing to it. No, gang, it didn’t happen that way. The crucial question to be asked is who could have done it, and only then who did do it. Who could have done it is a question of training and access to equipment and explosives.
Let’s look at the technical demands of the sabotage. (For what it’s worth, I hold a NAUI Master Diver ticket and nitrox cert. These are for sport diving, in principle not below 130 feet, but the problems are largely the same–deco, nitrogen narcosis, currents, and so on, but greatly less severe.)
To begin, the sabotage diving was dangerous, requiring a high level of training and experience. The pipelines are at about 250 feet. To dive at this depth, you need extensive experience, competent supporting crew, good equipment–or be stark crazy. Does the Ukraine have such divers? I don’t know though, since the country fronts on the Black Sea, maybe it does. This would be worth checking.
Almost the only sources of such divers are navies, commercial salvage companies, and a few small specialty outfits that take civilian tourist divers to deep wrecks like the Andrea Dorea. A reader wanting to know more about the nature of deep technical diving might read Shadow Divers, available on Amazon, about diving on a sunken German U-boat at depth. It is both technically correct and good adventure lit.
But let’s look at what is involved.
You cannot use compressed air at that depth. Oxygen, about twenty percent of normal air, becomes toxic when inhaled under many atmospheres of pressure. You have to use Trimix, a mixture of oxygen, helium, and nitrogen. this is specialized stuff that you cannot get at the corner grocery.
Water gets cold at depth, and the Baltic is not sunny Florida. The divers would need dry suits, which require training and are not sold at the local scuba store. People who what have them and know how to use them would be associated with governments or professional salvage outfits and probably traceable.
To blow up a pipeline you first have to find it. This is not as easy as it sounds. The ocean gets dark at depth. Even at 120 feet on a Caribbean wall all color is filtered out and there is only dim bluenesst. By some accounts the Ukrainians or the Navy dove at night to avoid attention. Visibility of more than fifty feet even in daytime even with flashlights would be unlikely or, at night zero. I will guess that navies might find a pipeline by sonar or by having Gps coordinates, both implying governmental participation.
I am not sure of the distance between the four pipelines–Chatjpg says 3.6 miles– but very little distance would require a repeat of all the procedures needed for one pipeline. Far more likely is that divers locked out of a submarine, as SEAL teams are trained to do and then reentered the sub to move on to the next pipeline, thus avoiding most of the objections to the surface-diver theory. Navy divers are known to have done this from the USS Halibut in the Sea of Okhost to tap a Russian communication cable.
Diving at eighty meters is very much in the decompression realm. At that depth you absorb a lot of nitrogen and, to avoid getting bent, which can be fatal, you need long deco stops on the way up. These require a line from the dive boat down to the bottom with air tanks at intervals to let the diver out-gas during long hang, which can run to hours depending on bottom time and gas mixture.
For the thanatoprurient reader, an interesting way to die is for your drysuit to suddenly inflate, shooting you to the surface and turning your blood to froth as nitrogen bubbles out. This happens.
Currents are another danger. They are said to be strong around the pipelines, though I don’t know. With drysuit and maybe triple tanks, you can’t swim against much of a current. I know of one diver, diving on a WWII wreck, who was swept off the ship and, not being clipped in, could not get back. Neither could he surface because without deco stops, which he did not have enough air for, his blood would have boiled. as i recall, he was not found.
Finally, the explosives. These, obviously, were designed to be left at depth for long periods and triggered remotely. They have about them a strong whiff of governments and navies, though perhaps an underwater engineering firm might have something of the sort for blowing up obstacles. Using them would require training, which almost nobody has outside the military.
That freelance Ukrainians could have managed all of these things without heavy government support is extremely unlikely, though this story is being peddled in the Western media. Sources of Trimix have to be few. Ukrainians with the requisite training and access to equipment have to be very few, either commercial divers or military, and easily traceable, though perhaps not in wartime.
In the above video, President Biden virtually promises to destroy the pipelines if russia invaded the Ukraine, which it did. This, it seems to me, is conclusive in establishing American involvement, though it might have taken the form of training and equipping the sometimes-claimed Ukrainians or of working with other countries, also sometimes claimed.
An idea promulgated by the American media with the enthusiasm of an Amway salesman late on his car payment is that Russia blew up the pipeline. This makes as much sense as lugnuts on a birthday cake. That Russia would blow up its own ten-billion dollar pipeline is so silly that I would expect to find the idea in the Wall Street Journal, which is where I did find it. But here some politics. (Look, I told you this was going to be disorganized.)
For many years a nightmare in Washington was that with the end of the Cold War, Germany and Russia might become heavy trading partners, with Russia providing Germany with cheap energy and raw materials and Germany providing Russia with things like machinery and technology. As after the fall of the USSR Russia did nothing scary, it was hard for America to use the old reliable of “Eeeek, the Russians are coming. The danger was that someone might say, “What is NATO for?” NATO was, and is, Washington’s primary means of keeping Europe as a collection of vassals.
So for many years before the Ukraine war, Washington fought furiously to keep Nordstream II from being completed and going live. During the war, the cutting off of Russian gas badly hurt German industry, and Putin kept pointing out that, should Germany make peace with Russia, he could restore the vital cheap energy with the push of a button. When Washington blew up the pipeline, if it did, it removed Russia’s leverage over Germany. It also reduced Germany’s industrial competitiveness and made it dependent on American natural gas. Such a deal.
Regardless of who did it, Germany presumably doesn’t want to blame Washington because the sabotage was an act of war and Berlin would have to do something about it or else make its subjugation to America more obvious than it would like. Washington has had much to gain by doing it but nothing by admitting it, Kiev probably doesn’t want to admit that it blew up a major ally’s main source of energy, so blaming freelancers amounts to saying that nobody is to blame. Perfection
Note that Washington has not shown any eagerness to investigate. For example, As many will remember, the investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published a piece saying that divers from the Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center in Florida did the deed. This is possible. They have the training and equipment. Congress could have subpoenaed them and questioned them under oath as to their part, if any, in the explosions. If they were not involved, this would have refuted Hersh’s claim that they were and largely exonerated the US in public opinion. Congress did not do this. Why not?
OK, them’s my thoughts. I’ll Wire transfers accepted.send you a bill tomorrow.
Thanks for putting the detail in writing.
But like Russiagate, and the JFK cover up (that it was covered up, not who did it)
this was all very obvious at the time.
So my question is why is anyone trying to fake a story in 2025?
Maybe Team Trump are preparing their way to accepting the huge defeat in Ukraine by saying “It was Europe that started it, not US”. A bit like they are pushing the “big russiagate reveals” to imply it was all the dems and 3-letter agencies that quarreled with Russia, not us.
I’m slightly surprised they aren’t suggesting a Ukrainian/UK joint venture – that would be a more credible story.
A very interesting gentleman I knew said that in 1963 he was working as a nightclub entertainer. According to him, one night he went into tje basement of the club for some reason and there were men talking in a room with the light on and the door open. He could hear them, but they were unaware of his presence. After hearing one of the men say, “When this thing goes down, it’s gonna change the world!” , he quickly and quietly left. Soon after, he called his parents and told them what had happened. They told him to get out of town, which he did. About a month later, President Kennedy was assassinated. Anyway, the owner of the nightclub was a guy named Jack Ruby. Who knows?
Fred … welcome back! What a delightful surprise this evening. I think governments and media count on the fact that news stories (even big ones) go down the rabbit hole after three days. As the detectives say when investigating a crime – who has the means, motive and opportunity?
Welcome back, Fred! You were missed! I look forward to your outstanding articles.
Fred,
Glad you are back. Some of us have missed you. Don
Great read Fred!
Thank’s for giving some thoughtful insight to the subject… it’s really nice to see you’re still in the mood to write your thoughts again.
We’ve missed you!
Great to read you again, Fred! Missed you! Hope you and yours are well. Deane in Fl
Welcome back Fred.
Not only did Biden threaten Germany by blowing up the Nord stream 2 pipeline but so did the US secretary of state Victoria Nuland.
Welcome back Fred – missed you. What happened during the interim?
OMG! I am so happy to finally receive something again from you.
It’s great to hear from you again, Fred!
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Fred… As obvious as it can get. Oh, the Hersh story, obvious too.. But what about the dog that did not bite…? Oh that British bulldog..
Good to hear from you again. Just on a factual point, my local dive shop (in Austria) does sell drysuits and I know many people who use them regularly. If you travel further northwards, then you will find they are standard use in some countries, such as Sweden.
Fred is back, and once again we have wisdom. I am pleased.
Good to see you back Fred! Hope all is well!
Nice Fred. The big unanswered question is still lurking out there: who made a suit wet or dry – big enough to fit Victoria Nuland.
Great to see you back Fred! Hope all is well with you!
Welcome Back, Fred. You are tracking with what I suspected. Now, send in the clowns. Wait, they’re already here!
Hope you are well and hope you continue to enlighten us. 😉
Fred, welcome back, you were missed!! Great to read your comments again.
Roy. Nice to see Fred is back!!! GP.
Thanks Fred! I needed that dose of informed speculation this morning. I could use more anytime you are up for it!
“Thanatoprurient”.
Nice one.
Great to hear from you again, Fred. And great analysis of a great mystery and of current [no pun intended] events.
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem! Amen….eh, Fred.
Welcome back, you old goat. I am delighted that the reports of your impending death at the hands of the Mashco Piro were premature. If you are doing research on your next novel, look no further than your old hunting ground, WashDC. It’s the Matrix, and it’s coming undone.
BTW, Fred, the time stamp on your blog indicates you may be in Dakkar. Don’t drink the water, old friend.
Sure glad to read your stuff again, Fred. Hope you’re well and having a good life.
The destruction of Nordstream does not require a diver. Explosives could be placed from the surface with devices allowing the people on the surface to see the spot where they were placed. Such devices are available to groups other than governments.
The Russian theory does not involved Putin’s regime. As the theory goes, Gazprom itself below the lines because they were unable to deliver gas according to contract because Putin’s regime had ordered the shut down. By blowing the lines, force majeure comes into play adn Gazprom would not have to pay compensation for nondelivery. This is only a theory, but one that makes sense.
I trust the eye surgery was successful adn things are well.
Such a grand surprise in my e mail this morning,, welcome back. Just when the conspiracy theories are back,, I’ll add my own,, https://explore.deeptrekker.com/pipe-trekker/?utm_term=pipeline%20cleaning%20robot&utm_campaign=Infrastructure+-+US+%7C+FX&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=4277424668&hsa_cam=14505043596&hsa_grp=129272001240&hsa_ad=609128778446&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-910617265401&hsa_kw=pipeline%20cleaning%20robot&hsa_mt=p&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=14505043596&gbraid=0AAAAABt4HIFUUi4bzLswOTffk4Lb7WNst&gclid=CjwKCAjwtrXFBhBiEiwAEKen115KBzuvbM0jpU8aHj5OHqERuWu6ZtGjKUU2xzwhv4WrZBJ96wYEMxoCitIQAvD_BwE
A robot dragging a rather small devise internally would be sufficient to destroy the pipeline.
what a great surprise I missed your insight
Welcome back!
It’s been too long, Fred, to be without your curmudgeonism. May you live long and thrive!
So very glad you are back, Fred. What a surprise in my email!
I sent you an email, too. But I think I probably misremembered what I was supposed to put in the subject line to get it through to you.
So maybe you could just drop me a line from here with the secret to get me started again?
FYI, you now have me (on your list) and several family members (on my list) who get to read you again!
Thanks Fred….finding out that your back made my day!
Great article and it’s great you’re sharing your thoughts again.
Great to have you back Fred, hope everything going well for you and your family. Great to read someone honest and not afraid to be frank and trueful, instead of the usual crap. Looking forward to further reading.
Yes, welcome back. I discovered your articles only shortly before you went offline. I am very happy to see your return.
A warm feeling of welcome back raced through my thoughts! I have missed your regular observations and analysis, and hope that I find more of them in my email in the future.
“Long Live Fred”!
What a delight to see your name on the intray in emails this morning. Glad you seem to be doing well Fred. Thank you for the info. As a woman with a great love of mountains and rarely, after childhood, going near the sea, I admit to knowing absolutely nothing about diving, and what it takes to do it. This is a situation I never like when the subject of diving becomes part of speculations, so thank you for going to trouble to educate me slightly.
Hope you and your wife continue doing well.
Glad you’re back. We missed you.
Welcome back Fred!
Enjoyed the article and am very pleased the eye surgery worked out in your favor
Looking forward to your future thoughts!
Interesting Read. AND …… Thanks for coming back Fred, your Wisdom was missed.
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My favorite Mexican Hillbilly, good to hear from you. I think MI6, the Redcoats, did it.
Great, Fred, you’re back again!
As for today’s topic, well, you can speculate endlessly, but the Russians have been known to do weird shit that they then blame on someone else. Remember how a Ukrainian POW camp got bombed by the Ukrainians? Or more likely, not.
One suggestion is that the Russians blew their own pipeline for propaganda purposes, using the vehicle that travels inside the pipelines for maintenance purposes. This does not need highly specialized divers and equipment. Did they do it? Maybe. And maybe not.
However, in the smoke and mirrors world of Putin, anything is possible. One day we will find out, but that day might not be too soon.
In the meantime, Fred, I’m sure you will have plenty to write about as the Orange Outang dismantles the USA and cosplays the Third Reich. Seen from Europe, it is adverbially scary. But odd. We had thought the USA was a functioning plutocracy, sorry, democracy, with checks and balances. The only checks seem to be the ones given out by the immensely wealthy to buy political influence.
GOOD EVENING SIR , YOU MOST DEF STILL HAVE THE YOUNG BOYS NEXT DOOR JOCK STRAP STILL ON YOUR FACE INDOORS AND OUT YOU KNOW FOR THE GREATER GOOD OF combatting Covid. UNDERSTANDINLLY DOING YOUR PART FOR Ukraine as well but you should take it off aye the mask not little Johnny’s anything. Your dad pedo Peter will gladly take showers with you and your teenage daughter and Johnny like he did with his own . And then you all can make diary entries together have Ashley Biden. Collect them so there not left in no rehabs. On a good note I truly hope you get truthfully informed before you can brainwash any johnys of your own god knows we dont need more peewees out there . Focus on everything reality only things you can see and believe with your own eyes I’ll tell you right now No Santas No tooth fairys AND THERES ONLY 2 GENDERS. GOOD DAY MATE
Imagine my surprise seeing this in my on-basket today; welcome back — if only sporadically.
Spot on as usual.
Thanks Fred. You may call it disorganized, but it was more than enough put more holes in the crypto-official smokescreen than you’ll find in a wheel of Swiss cheese. ¡Saludos!
Thanks for coming back to us Fred!
Fascinating, well thought thought out and presented thought exercise as always
Just curious, couldn’t they (whichever they it was), do it with a drone?
Good to see you back, Fred. Been reading from London since around 2000…
From Europe, the Russians are scary.
If the USA or Ukraine did it, then good. If it inconveniences the Germans, even better.
Most situations in Europe are Germanys fault.
Cheers
Great article. Fred, glad you are back. Keep the good stuff coming.
Glad to see you writing again sir! You’ve been missed. Here’s hoping you swoop in more regularly.
Welcome Back !!
Great to see you back!!! Thanks Fred.
Great to see you back again, Fred holding forth with truth, humor and Fred things. We have indeed missed you! Hope your eyes and vision are back to normal or as normal as we can have as senior citizens. Keep up your great work for America. Jack Bowers CAPTAIN USN (ret)
First time I’ve ever seen your column and judging by the comments, you are loved. So, I’m glad you’re back, as well, because this was an interesting read. Considering it was Nuland and Biden who made the threats, I’m gonna go with this being a US/UK operation. How it was done and who dun it? Well, I immediately think of who has expertise in deep sea drilling so that means there are quite a few possibilities and they’re all “Slava Ucraini”. I’m thinking some kind of robot or submersible thingy like we saw in the videos in the BP Macondo/Gulf of Mexico oil blow out and since nobody hates Russia more than the biggest shit stirrers on the planet, my money is on the British using BP personnel and their own military handling the explosives.
Great to see you back. It enlightens my threshold to fall. Also, I agree that we (US) are the most obvious nation to be the perpetrator.
What’s fascinating about these geopolitical tensions is that individuals have memory and cognitive thought, but organizations and nations that rely on collective governance have no neural connections to form memory and a cognitive thought. They simply can’t think. It’s a tradeoff, .. you can have individuals make decisions and thus risk getting tyrannical and depraved dictators, but thoughtful decisions, or you can go with collectives (democracy-like), but get no thought and dumber-than-a-rock decisions. Either way, you end up with depravity. Honestly, its best to try to ignore them, pretending they will go away.
So glad you are back.
Is there a portal (PO Box?) through which grateful readers can send F.O.E. a few shekels?
I’m a gonna steal “lugnuts on a birthday cake.”
I think I’ll say something original: WELCOME BACK!!!!!! Seeing a new ‘Fred on Everything’ made my day.
Welcome back Fred.
I knew you would be back.
You are a thinker and a writer; you can’t stop thinking nor writing, and we are happier because of that.
Scandinavian journalists made a very throughout investigation, and came to the conclusion that Russia did the sabotage.
There were several Russian ships associated with cladestine operations close by the place of the explosion in the days before. And there was used 300-400 kg of the equivalent of C4 explosive, so it was most certainly a state operation.
The German claim, that it was Ukraine, is not credible. The supposed yacht used, was to small to support such an operation, and it was not observed on the place of sabotage.
A lot of the sources in the investigation was open source, but the anonymous sources used sounds like it was danish and swedish intelligence and naval sources, who were frustrated that they could not comment their knowledge officially.
The original report is in scandinavian language, but here is a note from BBC in English:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65461401
As for dry suits. There are also hot water suits, which to my way of thinking would be more comfortable and less prone to filling with air and ejecting one like a minuteman missile out of the sea from said submarine and into oblivion.
Brilliant piece Fred! Glad you’re still around. Gotta catch up on a few years of Foe!
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it s nice to be able to read your articles again ! It was also nice to meet you and Vi at PRANZO again . Have a good healthy and long life ! Hasta la proxima
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The deliberately “disorganized” framing suits a subject as tangled as Nord Stream II, where energy policy, geopolitics, and European dependence are impossible to separate neatly. I’d be curious to see which of those competing threads you think ultimately mattered most.
The “disorganized thoughts” framing fits a topic as tangled as Nord Stream II, where energy security, European dependence, and geopolitics overlap. It would be interesting to see which of those competing concerns the article ultimately treats as decisive.
The deliberately fragmented structure suits a subject as tangled as Nordstream II, especially where energy policy, security, and geopolitics overlap. It would be interesting to see which of these competing threads you consider most decisive in the end.
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